Large-scale attribution of trend in UK flood flow data

The objective of this study is to undertake a preliminary investigation of trend in annual maximum series of peak flood data in the United Kingdom, as a precursor to developing a more complete procedure for non-stationary flood frequency estimation. A fifth of the trends in series that are at least 20 years long are significant at the 5% level (of in total 388 series). Most of the significant trends are positive, and are located in the north and west. The largest positive trends occur for short records in the most recent decades. Trends were also investigated for various subsets of the data, based on different catchment characteristics. There is an indication that the range of trend values observed for urban catchments is larger than the range observed for the rural subset, and that storage of water, whether in lakes and reservoirs or in permeable geology, has an ameliorating effect on trend magnitude

A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment

The report presents a review of methods used in Europe for trend analysis, climate change projections and non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. In addition, main findings of the analyses are presented, including a comparison of trend analysis results and climate change projections. Existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation that incorporate climate change are reviewed. The report concludes with a discussion of research needs on non-stationary frequency analysis for considering the effects of climate change and inclusion in design guidelines. Trend analyses are reported for 21 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. A large number of national and regional trend studies have been carried out. Most studies are based on statistical methods applied to individual time series of extreme precipitation or extreme streamflow using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test or regression analysis. Some studies have been reported that use field significance or regional consistency tests to analyse trends over larger areas. Some of the studies also include analysis of trend attribution. The studies reviewed indicate that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant increasing trends at regional or national level of extreme streamflow. For some smaller regions increases in extreme streamflow are reported. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows. Climate change projections have been reported for 14 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. The review shows various approaches for producing climate projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency based on alternative climate forcing scenarios, climate projections from available global and regional climate models, methods for statistical downscaling and bias correction, and alternative hydrological models. A large number of the reported studies are based on an ensemble modelling approach that use several climate forcing scenarios and climate model projections in order to address the uncertainty on the projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Some studies also include alternative statistical downscaling and bias correction methods and hydrological modelling approaches. Most studies reviewed indicate an increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trend of extreme precipitation. Hydrological projections of peak flows and flood frequency show both positive and negative changes. Large increases in peak flows are reported for some catchments with rainfall-dominated peak flows, whereas a general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are reported for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows. The latter is consistent with the observed trends. The review of existing guidelines in Europe on design floods and design rainfalls shows that only few countries explicitly address climate change. These design guidelines are based on climate change adjustment factors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on design return period and projection horizon. The review indicates a gap between the need for considering climate change impacts in design and actual published guidelines that incorporate climate change in extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Most of the studies reported are based on frequency analysis assuming stationary conditions in a certain time window (typically 30 years) representing current and future climate. There is a need for developing more consistent non-stationary frequency analysis methods that can account for the transient nature of a changing climate

Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models

This study investigates whether long-term changes in observed series of high flows can be attributed to changes in land use via nonstationary flood-frequency analyses. A point process characterization of threshold exceedances is used, which allows for direct inclusion of covariates in the model; as well as a nonstationary model for block maxima series. In particular, changes in annual, winter, and summer block maxima and peaks over threshold extracted from gauged instantaneous flows records in two hydrologically similar catchments located in proximity to one another in northern England are investigated. The study catchment is characterized by large increases in urbanization levels in recent decades, while the paired control catchment has remained undeveloped during the study period (1970–2010). To avoid the potential confounding effect of natural variability, a covariate which summarizes key climatological properties is included in the flood-frequency model. A significant effect of the increasing urbanization levels on high flows is detected, in particular in the summer season. Point process models appear to be superior to block maxima models in their ability to detect the effect of the increase in urbanization levels on high flows

Characterizing temporary hydrological regimes at a European scale

Monthly duration curves have been constructed from climate data across Europe to help address the relative frequency of ecologically critical low flow stages in temporary rivers, when flow persists only in disconnected pools in the river bed. The hydrological model is 5 based on a partitioning of precipitation to estimate water available for evapotranspiration and plant growth and for residual runoff. The duration curve for monthly flows has then been analysed to give an estimate of bankfull flow based on recurrence interval. The corresponding frequency for pools is then based on the ratio of bank full discharge to pool flow, arguing from observed ratios of cross-sectional areas at flood 10 and low flows to estimate pool flow as 0.1% of bankfull flow, and so estimate the frequency of the pool conditions that constrain survival of river-dwelling arthropods and fish. The methodology has been applied across Europe at 15 km resolution, and can equally be applied under future climatic scenarios

Stochastic excitation of acoustic modes in stars

For more than ten years, solar-like oscillations have been detected and frequencies measured for a growing number of stars with various characteristics (e.g. different evolutionary stages, effective temperatures, gravities, metal abundances ...). Excitation of such oscillations is attributed to turbulent convection and takes place in the uppermost part of the convective envelope. Since the pioneering work of Goldreich & Keely (1977), more sophisticated theoretical models of stochastic excitation were developed, which differ from each other both by the way turbulent convection is modeled and by the assumed sources of excitation. We review here these different models and their underlying approximations and assumptions. We emphasize how the computed mode excitation rates crucially depend on the way turbulent convection is described but also on the stratification and the metal abundance of the upper layers of the star. In turn we will show how the seismic measurements collected so far allow us to infer properties of turbulent convection in stars.Comment: Notes associated with a lecture given during the fall school organized by the CNRS and held in St-Flour (France) 20-24 October 2008 ; 39 pages ; 11 figure

Prospects for asteroseismology

The observational basis for asteroseismology is being dramatically strengthened, through more than two years of data from the CoRoT satellite, the flood of data coming from the Kepler mission and, in the slightly longer term, from dedicated ground-based facilities. Our ability to utilize these data depends on further development of techniques for basic data analysis, as well as on an improved understanding of the relation between the observed frequencies and the underlying properties of the stars. Also, stellar modelling must be further developed, to match the increasing diagnostic potential of the data. Here we discuss some aspects of data interpretation and modelling, focussing on the important case of stars with solar-like oscillations.Comment: Proc. HELAS Workshop on 'Synergies between solar and stellar modelling', eds M. Marconi, D. Cardini & M. P. Di Mauro, Astrophys. Space Sci., in the press Revision: correcting abscissa labels on Figs 1 and

An Introduction to Data Analysis in Asteroseismology

A practical guide is presented to some of the main data analysis concepts and techniques employed contemporarily in the asteroseismic study of stars exhibiting solar-like oscillations. The subjects of digital signal processing and spectral analysis are introduced first. These concern the acquisition of continuous physical signals to be subsequently digitally analyzed. A number of specific concepts and techniques relevant to asteroseismology are then presented as we follow the typical workflow of the data analysis process, namely, the extraction of global asteroseismic parameters and individual mode parameters (also known as peak-bagging) from the oscillation spectrum.Comment: Lecture presented at the IVth Azores International Advanced School in Space Sciences on "Asteroseismology and Exoplanets: Listening to the Stars and Searching for New Worlds" (arXiv:1709.00645), which took place in Horta, Azores Islands, Portugal in July 201

Floods: vulnerability, risks and management. A joint report of ETC CCA and ICM

This report describes floods in a European context with the purpose of highlighting factors that contribute to the occurrence and adverse consequences of floods, and possibilities to reduce flood risks from inland waters and rainfall. It includes a discussion on changes in flood patterns and illustrates how different scenarios for climate change may affect vulnerability to floods and flood risks. The report provides illustrative examples of flood risk management from the local to European level

Asteroseismology of Eclipsing Binary Stars in the Kepler Era

Eclipsing binary stars have long served as benchmark systems to measure fundamental stellar properties. In the past few decades, asteroseismology - the study of stellar pulsations - has emerged as a new powerful tool to study the structure and evolution of stars across the HR diagram. Pulsating stars in eclipsing binary systems are particularly valuable since fundamental properties (such as radii and masses) can determined using two independent techniques. Furthermore, independently measured properties from binary orbits can be used to improve asteroseismic modeling for pulsating stars in which mode identifications are not straightforward. This contribution provides a review of asteroseismic detections in eclipsing binary stars, with a focus on space-based missions such as CoRoT and Kepler, and empirical tests of asteroseismic scaling relations for stochastic ("solar-like") oscillations.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables; Proceedings of the AAS topical conference "Giants of Eclipse" (AASTCS-3), July 28 - August 2 2013, Monterey, C